yet unemloyment is high, we have a down grade in credit, there is a European Debt Crisis etc?|||There is an underlying belief that the economy is doing much better with recent economic data. Even with all the black clouds on the horizon, corporate earnings were good and there is some pent up demand driving profits in corporations. The stock market tends to look towards the future so if any of these good news gains doesn't pan out the Dow will go back to the lows.
Myself, I am kind of a pessimist here because the Super Committee has to come up with a budget plan on November 23rd. If nothing but gridlock and bad feelings come from this committee then the Dow will take a fall because of the continuation of our debt crisis. So far, the U.S. debt crisis has taken a back seat because it is being dealt with behind close doors. That ends on November 23rd. The Dow could see new lows after Thanksgiving which is typically "Santa Claus" rally time.|||In 2012/13 all stocks will go bang and end up at pre-1990 levels.
The Dow and FTSE have been artificially high for 20 years.
The resulting meltdown will be too horrendous to contemplate.
Conspiracy theorists bang on about comet strikes and planetary alignments in 2012 as predicted by the Mayans and other ancient civilisations.
Trust me,the disaster awaiting humanity is fiscal.|||It's not. It is 2000 points below it's 2007 high. What's good about that?
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Portugal "sold 鈧?.2bn of its debt"?
Hi,
I was reading an article on CNN (http://edition.cnn.com/2011/BUSINESS/01/12/portugal.europe.debt.crisis.ft/index.html?eref=edition) and saw:
"The intensifying European debt crisis appeared to take a step back from the brink on Wednesday when besieged Portugal was able to sell more than 鈧?.2bn in long-term debt at much lower than expected interest rates."
I was just curious: what exactly do they mean when they say Portugal "sold" its long-term debt?|||they mean that Portugal is good.|||Hmm when a country sell it debts it mean the country needed 鈧?.2bn and borrowed it from the markets usually if a country is in high danger of not been able to pay the money back the investor raise the interests and buy less debt however in this case the interest where high but much of the debt was bought.
That of course shows that in reality the markets believe Portugal can pay his debt back (people wouldnt lend money to a country who they know will default) but that instead the interests are been keep high by artificial expeculation.|||In simple terms it means that it got other people to give it money to tide it over its lean period. It still has to pay those bond holders back. It seems that China and Japan both came good on their promises and bought a lot of the bonds issued.
I was reading an article on CNN (http://edition.cnn.com/2011/BUSINESS/01/12/portugal.europe.debt.crisis.ft/index.html?eref=edition) and saw:
"The intensifying European debt crisis appeared to take a step back from the brink on Wednesday when besieged Portugal was able to sell more than 鈧?.2bn in long-term debt at much lower than expected interest rates."
I was just curious: what exactly do they mean when they say Portugal "sold" its long-term debt?|||they mean that Portugal is good.|||Hmm when a country sell it debts it mean the country needed 鈧?.2bn and borrowed it from the markets usually if a country is in high danger of not been able to pay the money back the investor raise the interests and buy less debt however in this case the interest where high but much of the debt was bought.
That of course shows that in reality the markets believe Portugal can pay his debt back (people wouldnt lend money to a country who they know will default) but that instead the interests are been keep high by artificial expeculation.|||In simple terms it means that it got other people to give it money to tide it over its lean period. It still has to pay those bond holders back. It seems that China and Japan both came good on their promises and bought a lot of the bonds issued.
How come the Dow is so high--It is almost at its all -time high?
Yet we have high unemployment, low GDP, and a European Debt Crisis, Down grade in our credit ratiing, protestors etc.|||The Dow is almost 20% lower that its high of a little over 14,000 4 years ago. Most of the companies on the Dow are multinationals, and therefore make a lot of money in other countries. If they do not move their profit to the US, they reap huge profits and low taxes. By having businesses in foreign countries, they also leverage the fluctuation of the US currency, so the weaker the dollar, the more competitive and profitable they are overseas. They are very adept at maneuvering their business priorities from country to country as the world economies change. Many of these companies make more money overseas than they do in the US! I hope this helps!|||Many companies are making a lot of money. But they are holding on to the money and not hiring new workers. The downgrade of the credit rating involved the Federal government, because the Congress took to much time coming to an agreement about paying loans the government had taken.|||the same reason the the price of gasoline is high:
inflation.
inflation.
If a U.S. economic crises can affect Europe, can a European debt crises affect the United States?
Also, the United States govt. is currently operating on a "too big to fail" doctrine. But at what point will the U.S. govt. start having a debt crises?? (I mean other countries are EVENTUALLY going to realize we have no intention/means to pay any of these debt off, right??)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100428/ap_o鈥?/a>
BERLIN 鈥?Europe's debt crisis mushroomed Wednesday as Spain saw its credit rating lowered, just as Germany sought to reassure nervous investors that Greece would not be allowed to go under, saying Berlin's share of a key aid package could be approved in the next few days.
Stock and bond markets had begun to regain their composure after stinging downgrades of Greece and Portugal the day before, when Standard %26amp; Poors delivered more bad news by cutting Spain's rating to AA from AA+ amid concerns about the country's growth prospects following the collapse of a construction bubble.
"We now believe that the Spanish economy's shift away from credit-fuelled economic growth is likely to result in a more protracted period of sluggish activity than we previously assumed," Standard %26amp; Poor's credit analyst Marko Mrsnik said.
Spain is considered the key to whether Europe's debt crisis can be resolved 鈥?its economy is much larger than that of Greece and Portugal and 鈥?many in the markets postulate 鈥?may be just too big to bail out if it gets into serious trouble.
Though its overall debt burden is fairly modest at around 53 percent of national income, the country is running a high budget deficit and has done less than others to get a handle on its public finances.|||The US will affected on the trading side of business. American exports will cost more to Europeans because the Euro is continually sliding in value against the US dollar despite the massive debt we have. All American companies that export to Europe will be hurt. The entire European Union is going to go into a recession. We will see in the coming months how it will affect us. The US dollar will still go down in value still which will cause our own problems, but Europe will not be the reason for our collapse.|||Remember how Democrats pointed toward improved manufacturing numbers as a sign of an "Obama Recovery?"...much of that was because the strong Euro was making American-made goods cheap to import into Europe. I work with a couple of manufacturers who only survived the past two years because of European customers. Soon, that will all go away.|||Yes, it already has. Some of the bailout money went to European Banks.|||It's all a sign that the global recession is'nt over yet,as we were led to believe.The **** is about to hit the fan-when the euro collapses it will mean the us will lose its biggest set of buyers,this global recession has'nt even started yet,we're just past the first corner of a very long race.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100428/ap_o鈥?/a>
BERLIN 鈥?Europe's debt crisis mushroomed Wednesday as Spain saw its credit rating lowered, just as Germany sought to reassure nervous investors that Greece would not be allowed to go under, saying Berlin's share of a key aid package could be approved in the next few days.
Stock and bond markets had begun to regain their composure after stinging downgrades of Greece and Portugal the day before, when Standard %26amp; Poors delivered more bad news by cutting Spain's rating to AA from AA+ amid concerns about the country's growth prospects following the collapse of a construction bubble.
"We now believe that the Spanish economy's shift away from credit-fuelled economic growth is likely to result in a more protracted period of sluggish activity than we previously assumed," Standard %26amp; Poor's credit analyst Marko Mrsnik said.
Spain is considered the key to whether Europe's debt crisis can be resolved 鈥?its economy is much larger than that of Greece and Portugal and 鈥?many in the markets postulate 鈥?may be just too big to bail out if it gets into serious trouble.
Though its overall debt burden is fairly modest at around 53 percent of national income, the country is running a high budget deficit and has done less than others to get a handle on its public finances.|||The US will affected on the trading side of business. American exports will cost more to Europeans because the Euro is continually sliding in value against the US dollar despite the massive debt we have. All American companies that export to Europe will be hurt. The entire European Union is going to go into a recession. We will see in the coming months how it will affect us. The US dollar will still go down in value still which will cause our own problems, but Europe will not be the reason for our collapse.|||Remember how Democrats pointed toward improved manufacturing numbers as a sign of an "Obama Recovery?"...much of that was because the strong Euro was making American-made goods cheap to import into Europe. I work with a couple of manufacturers who only survived the past two years because of European customers. Soon, that will all go away.|||Yes, it already has. Some of the bailout money went to European Banks.|||It's all a sign that the global recession is'nt over yet,as we were led to believe.The **** is about to hit the fan-when the euro collapses it will mean the us will lose its biggest set of buyers,this global recession has'nt even started yet,we're just past the first corner of a very long race.
Has the market bottomed or would go lower?
Market has gone down nearly 20% from May peak so far, there's two major opinions now:
Opinion one: S%26amp;P 500 will rebound to the neckline of 1260 and then would go down further, we're heading into a long long bear market, possibly testing the 2009 lows. - In this case we should reduce our equities and move to safer places when the market rebound to 1260 level;
Opinion Two: This is still a bull market correction, market is close to the bottom, we should buy more at this time.
This is really important for us how to handle the equities in our hands. I think the key factors for this question are:
1) Would Fed roll out QE3 in Jackson Hole meeting?
2) Would european sovereign debt crisis continue to get worse and worse and finally uncontrollable?
What's your opinion or could you share some good opinions you saw?|||Only Retrospect can reveal to us the answers you seek.|||There has been a considerable amount of panic selling. Whether it is over with yet is anybody's guess. I really don't see sovereign debt crisis getting any better. Governments are just too inept (all governments). Don't seem to be able to say no to spending and waste. The one here in the US is the absolute worst. Makes Greece look like Scrooge. I do remember back in 1974 when the average pe ratio was about 4. If that were to reoccur, we have yet a long way to go.|||Early in the year some financial gurus predicted a s%26amp;p at year end of 1346.
We reached that a while back then regressed.
So, I feel we will still end at 1346 or there about.|||You don't have to hit the bottom, you just need to be in the ballpark of it :)|||Although the fall in the Market was based on some hard facts (credit rating downgraded, default threat), the market over reacted and investors sold out of fear. It was caused by panic surrounding financial situations in US and Europe. The threat of default, then the downgrading of America's Credit Rating by Standard %26amp; Poor's from AAA to AA+ had a major negative effect on world markets. The financial situation in Britain may have been a contributing factor in the London and later Liverpool and Manchester riots. In France there were fears that their credit rating could be downgraded from its AAA rating as well. Many of the stock market falls were caused by investors pulling out due to speculation, not hard economical facts, and as a result many shares are now undervalued. It is hard to tell whether the market will go down any further or whether it will go up, however we know for sure that small cap shares and less followed shares are now undervalued and bargains are on offer. As an investor I believe it is a good time to invest in small caps before market correction takes place. Market Correction will come into place within the next 5 days or so.
This week wasn't the end of the World however a market panic, i give you my strong belief that the market is at a low we want see for the next few months as economic recovery brings new business opportunity. I do believe a QE3 will be rolled out or at least an expansion on a QE2, this will be until a concrete path for recovery has been sealed. European sovereign debt crisis will get worse but will be put more into perspective and will be handled by currency correction, expect to see more pacific growth and lending.
Opinion one: S%26amp;P 500 will rebound to the neckline of 1260 and then would go down further, we're heading into a long long bear market, possibly testing the 2009 lows. - In this case we should reduce our equities and move to safer places when the market rebound to 1260 level;
Opinion Two: This is still a bull market correction, market is close to the bottom, we should buy more at this time.
This is really important for us how to handle the equities in our hands. I think the key factors for this question are:
1) Would Fed roll out QE3 in Jackson Hole meeting?
2) Would european sovereign debt crisis continue to get worse and worse and finally uncontrollable?
What's your opinion or could you share some good opinions you saw?|||Only Retrospect can reveal to us the answers you seek.|||There has been a considerable amount of panic selling. Whether it is over with yet is anybody's guess. I really don't see sovereign debt crisis getting any better. Governments are just too inept (all governments). Don't seem to be able to say no to spending and waste. The one here in the US is the absolute worst. Makes Greece look like Scrooge. I do remember back in 1974 when the average pe ratio was about 4. If that were to reoccur, we have yet a long way to go.|||Early in the year some financial gurus predicted a s%26amp;p at year end of 1346.
We reached that a while back then regressed.
So, I feel we will still end at 1346 or there about.|||You don't have to hit the bottom, you just need to be in the ballpark of it :)|||Although the fall in the Market was based on some hard facts (credit rating downgraded, default threat), the market over reacted and investors sold out of fear. It was caused by panic surrounding financial situations in US and Europe. The threat of default, then the downgrading of America's Credit Rating by Standard %26amp; Poor's from AAA to AA+ had a major negative effect on world markets. The financial situation in Britain may have been a contributing factor in the London and later Liverpool and Manchester riots. In France there were fears that their credit rating could be downgraded from its AAA rating as well. Many of the stock market falls were caused by investors pulling out due to speculation, not hard economical facts, and as a result many shares are now undervalued. It is hard to tell whether the market will go down any further or whether it will go up, however we know for sure that small cap shares and less followed shares are now undervalued and bargains are on offer. As an investor I believe it is a good time to invest in small caps before market correction takes place. Market Correction will come into place within the next 5 days or so.
This week wasn't the end of the World however a market panic, i give you my strong belief that the market is at a low we want see for the next few months as economic recovery brings new business opportunity. I do believe a QE3 will be rolled out or at least an expansion on a QE2, this will be until a concrete path for recovery has been sealed. European sovereign debt crisis will get worse but will be put more into perspective and will be handled by currency correction, expect to see more pacific growth and lending.
How much longer will people pretend the Federal Reserve is not a scam?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/22/busine…
WASHINGTON — The unemployment rate in the United States is likely to remain well above 7 percent through the end of 2012 and the duration of President Obama’s current term, according to the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke struck a more cautious tone than he did when he last submitted the report, in February.
Ben S. Bernanke, the Fed chairman, told Congress on Wednesday that it would take “a significant amount of time” to restore the 8.5 million jobs lost in the United States in 2008 and 2009, and warned that “the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain.” He also warned that financial conditions, particularly the European sovereign debt crisis, had “become less supportive of economic growth in recent months.”|||The Fed will exist for as long as the government does.
They ARE the government.
They will never be audited and if they ever are, the numbers will be faked
and the tapes will be burned.
WASHINGTON — The unemployment rate in the United States is likely to remain well above 7 percent through the end of 2012 and the duration of President Obama’s current term, according to the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke struck a more cautious tone than he did when he last submitted the report, in February.
Ben S. Bernanke, the Fed chairman, told Congress on Wednesday that it would take “a significant amount of time” to restore the 8.5 million jobs lost in the United States in 2008 and 2009, and warned that “the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain.” He also warned that financial conditions, particularly the European sovereign debt crisis, had “become less supportive of economic growth in recent months.”|||The Fed will exist for as long as the government does.
They ARE the government.
They will never be audited and if they ever are, the numbers will be faked
and the tapes will be burned.
So what could happen if house repubs do not raise the debt ceiling?
By Wanfeng Zhou
NEW YORK, April 18 (Reuters) - A threat by Standard %26amp; Poor's to cut its top rating on U.S. government debt and renewed worries about Europe's debt crisis spurred a sell-off in major world stock markets on Monday.
The weakness started in European markets on fears that Greece will have to restructure its debt possibly as early as the summer. That put the euro on track for its biggest one-day decline in five months against the U.S. dollar.
The sell-off picked up pace later when rating agency Standard %26amp; Poor's revised its outlook on the United States to negative from stable, citing the risk that policymakers would fail to agree on proposals to trim its large budget deficit. See [ID:nN18195555]|||Life as we financially know it ends (plus much more).
A new day begins...And, it won't be pretty...|||Nobody in the government is stupid enough to not raise the debt ceiling. Defaulting even once would cause the value of US bonds to plummet, and could possibly turn the recession into an economic crisis worse than the Great Depression. At the very least, you can count on them to raise it purely out of self-interest.|||some things wouldn't get paid for, but the US would not default on loans. That's just BS. There is such a thing as prioritization, so interest payments to foreign countries would need to be paid first.|||We would have to cut spending drastically which is what we need.|||I guess single black women will have to give up their government paid for designer clothes...
NEW YORK, April 18 (Reuters) - A threat by Standard %26amp; Poor's to cut its top rating on U.S. government debt and renewed worries about Europe's debt crisis spurred a sell-off in major world stock markets on Monday.
The weakness started in European markets on fears that Greece will have to restructure its debt possibly as early as the summer. That put the euro on track for its biggest one-day decline in five months against the U.S. dollar.
The sell-off picked up pace later when rating agency Standard %26amp; Poor's revised its outlook on the United States to negative from stable, citing the risk that policymakers would fail to agree on proposals to trim its large budget deficit. See [ID:nN18195555]|||Life as we financially know it ends (plus much more).
A new day begins...And, it won't be pretty...|||Nobody in the government is stupid enough to not raise the debt ceiling. Defaulting even once would cause the value of US bonds to plummet, and could possibly turn the recession into an economic crisis worse than the Great Depression. At the very least, you can count on them to raise it purely out of self-interest.|||some things wouldn't get paid for, but the US would not default on loans. That's just BS. There is such a thing as prioritization, so interest payments to foreign countries would need to be paid first.|||We would have to cut spending drastically which is what we need.|||I guess single black women will have to give up their government paid for designer clothes...
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